Seminar NBS 30.9. M.Ellison (University of Oxford)

[sevcovic]

Martin Ellison (University of Oxford)
A Defence of the FOMC

Abstract
We defend the forecasting performance of the FOMC against a criticism of Christina and David Romer (2008) by assuming that the FOMC’s forecasts depict a worst-case scenario that it uses to
design decisions that are robust to misspecification of the staff’s model. We use a simple macro model and a plausible loss function to illustrate how such an interpretation of the FOMC’s forecasts
can explain the findings of Romer and Romer, including the pattern of differences between FOMC forecasts and forecasts published by the staff of the Federal Reserve System in the Greenbook.

Spoluautorom prezentovanej prace je Thomas Sargent, clanok mozete najst tu:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/do ... 1&type=pdf
http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/members/martin.ellison/

Ucast na seminari prosim potvrdte emailom na adrese eva.kreibik@nbs.sk.

Prajem pekny den,
Matúš Senaj
Odbor výskumu
Národná banka Slovenska
tel.: 02 5787 2935
e-mail: matus.senaj@nbs.sk
web: http://www.nbs.sk/sk/publikacie/vyskumne-studie
http://ideas.repec.org/f/pse317.html