IER SAS Seminar – 18. 11. 2026 at 10:00 – Tihana Škrinjarić

[EU SAV]

Dear All,

we are pleased to invite you to another Seminar in Empirical Economics taking place at the library of the Institute of Economic Research of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (IER SAS), on:

November 18, 2026 (Wednesday) at 10:00 – 11:30

This time, the invitation has been accepted by:

Tihana Škrinjarić
(Bank of England, United Kingdom),

delivering a presentation titled:

“Developing a house price-at-risk framework for the UK”

Abstract:
This paper develops a house price-at-risk framework for the UK. The model allows me to track and decompose different parts of the distribution of house price growth. The analysis covers both the national level, and nine English regions, along with Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. I employ a comprehensive set of variables and indicators that could help to explain house price dynamics. My main findings are that since the 1970s, the most important predictors for the tail of the distribution have been transaction growth, changes in mortgage rate, credit to GDP gap, and financial stress. I utilise several forecasting horizons and demonstrate that this framework can be applied to forecast downside risks to house price growth and the probability of negative growth up to two years ahead. At the regional level, the analysis reveals considerable variation in the estimated coefficients for mortgage interest rates, with supply-inelastic regions showing higher values than other areas. Finally, I find that an increase in the housing supply in most regions is associated with subsequent easing of price pressures in regional markets.

Further information on this research can be found here:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working ... for-the-uk


The seminar will be organized in a hybrid form – for those interested, the speaker and a couple of discussants will be present in the library of IER SAS.


Link:
https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-jo ... d04a%22%7d


If you know of anyone who might be interested in this topic, please forward this information on.


More information about the seminars can be found at:
https://ekonom.sav.sk/en/empiricke-seminare11

If you prefer not to receive seminar invitations, please feel free to reach out to:
maria.lackova@savba.sk